Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Illinois State Redbirds (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c4dfad253b7c4638dd937e54c6077d4f9e00db7340d7e24c3933d24c7770b44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinois State Redbirdsof Illinois State Redbirds, Valparaiso Beacons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1064…f153backed Illinois State Redbirds | 52c | 1,063$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.28 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Illinois State Redbirds | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 429 | 34.3%147 W · 282 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Valparaiso Beacons | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 564 | 44.1%249 W · 315 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…ad14backed Illinois State Redbirds | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Valparaiso Beacons | 47c | 500.64$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.95 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Valparaiso Beacons | 48c | 458.33$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Illinois State Redbirds | 53c | 340.48$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.34 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Valparaiso Beacons | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Valparaiso Beacons | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Valparaiso Beacons | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf926…fb21backed Valparaiso Beacons | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Valparaiso Beacons | 46c | 96.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Valparaiso Beacons | 46c | 79.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3ae9backed Valparaiso Beacons | 48c | 28.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e16…2ab7backed Illinois State Redbirds | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Illinois State Redbirds (-8.5)this page
- Valparaiso Beacons vs. Illinois State RedbirdsIllinois State Redbirds won
- Valparaiso Beacons vs. Illinois State Redbirds: O/U 137.5Over won
- Valparaiso Beacons vs. Illinois State Redbirds: O/U 138.5Over won
- Valparaiso Beacons vs. Illinois State Redbirds: O/U 139.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.