Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Valparaiso Beacons vs. Illinois State Redbirds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde47f616beca70d02477c25cca2dba55d94020e91b0731d6d7cfb79dbc171889
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinois State Redbirdsof Valparaiso Beacons, Illinois State Redbirds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a0a…24a9backed Valparaiso Beacons | 10c | 4,991$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Valparaiso Beacons | 16c | 2,742$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.27 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Valparaiso Beacons | 25c | 1,815$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.66 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 79c | 1,075$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.04 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Illinois State Redbirds | 80c | 871$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.2 | 327 | 51.7%169 W · 158 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Valparaiso Beacons | 21c | 754.54$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.42 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked Illinois State Redbirds | 79c | 508.44$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.28 | 814 | 53.1%432 W · 382 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…ea5ebacked Valparaiso Beacons | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 371 | 42.6%158 W · 213 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Valparaiso Beacons | 20c | 478.57$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.47 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Valparaiso Beacons | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Illinois State Redbirds | 68c | 433$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.33 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Valparaiso Beacons | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…f031backed Illinois State Redbirds | 80c | 201$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Valparaiso Beacons | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866e…7deabacked Valparaiso Beacons | 20c | 193$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf21f…9e58backed Valparaiso Beacons | 27c | 179.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 66c | 146.24$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Valparaiso Beacons | 13c | 121.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d5…6a7bbacked Valparaiso Beacons | 25c | 115.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Illinois State Redbirds | 79c | 108$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Valparaiso Beacons | 34c | 101.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…a84abacked Valparaiso Beacons | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed Valparaiso Beacons | 20c | 99.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe12a…67efbacked Valparaiso Beacons | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Valparaiso Beacons | 24c | 86.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Illinois State Redbirds | 69c | 72.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Valparaiso Beacons | 25c | 66.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Valparaiso Beacons | 26c | 63.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 940 | 36.9%347 W · 593 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…be18backed Illinois State Redbirds | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Valparaiso Beacons | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Illinois State Redbirds | 76c | 48.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4324…1390backed Illinois State Redbirds | 55c | 43.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valparaiso Beacons vs. Illinois State Redbirdsthis page
- Spread: Illinois State Redbirds (-8.5)Illinois State Redbirds won
- Valparaiso Beacons vs. Illinois State Redbirds: O/U 137.5Over won
- Valparaiso Beacons vs. Illinois State Redbirds: O/U 138.5Over won
- Valparaiso Beacons vs. Illinois State Redbirds: O/U 139.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.