CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group D
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c52395ef86c2aefa297f905c010b73a0f033acb7b34d25848273a9dbd2d3587
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof ASTRAL, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d2e…896dbacked ASTRAL | 41c | 20,266$8,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,266.88 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30c7…ac3bbacked Ursa | 59c | 15,000$8,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,149.87 | 756 | 52.6%398 W · 358 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Ursa | 60c | 4,497$2,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,798.71 | 844 | 54.3%458 W · 386 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Ursa | 61c | 4,493$2,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,748.65 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x183f…85e3backed Ursa | 61c | 3,348$2,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305.54 | 238 | 48.3%115 W · 123 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b59…3aa6backed Ursa | 60c | 3,268$1,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.58 | 849 | 58.3%495 W · 354 L | +60.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed ASTRAL | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 1,411 | 33.7%475 W · 936 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5054…0aafbacked Ursa | 59c | 1,984$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.58 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…30abbacked ASTRAL | 39c | 1,981$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.75 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…dd23backed ASTRAL | 39c | 1,470$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.3 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed ASTRAL | 37c | 1,288$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.68 | 573 | 58.8%337 W · 236 L | +16.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b8…4b69backed Ursa | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…22e0backed ASTRAL | 40c | 785.1$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.28 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked ASTRAL | 38c | 778.29$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.75 | 183 | 41%75 W · 108 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked ASTRAL | 38c | 751.3$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.99 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed ASTRAL | 39c | 639.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked ASTRAL | 40c | 592.66$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.14 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Ursa | 45c | 515.18$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.89 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed ASTRAL | 58c | 501.5$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.5 | 1,163 | 54.3%631 W · 532 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed ASTRAL | 39c | 483.16$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.43 | 392 | 45.9%180 W · 212 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed ASTRAL | 41c | 481.97$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.79 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa033…4938backed ASTRAL | 40c | 466.58$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.63 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…a6ddbacked ASTRAL | 40c | 360.09$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.1 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…5bc0backed ASTRAL | 34c | 320.28$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.43 | 153 | 58.2%89 W · 64 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…2877backed Ursa | 61c | 318.53$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.22 | 648 | 54.3%352 W · 296 L | +25.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb1…eab3backed ASTRAL | 37c | 311.83$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.52 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Ursa | 67c | 299.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.15 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked ASTRAL | 41c | 258.8$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.11 | 635 | 41.9%266 W · 369 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed ASTRAL | 40c | 247.19$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.88 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edd…c57fbacked ASTRAL | 40c | 241$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb57f…0c96backed ASTRAL | 41c | 219.18$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.86 | 215 | 45.6%98 W · 117 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb3…6bfebacked ASTRAL | 40c | 196.13$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…5685backed ASTRAL | 40c | 171.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 312 | 41.3%129 W · 183 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Ursa | 59c | 169.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.51 | 611 | 54.7%334 W · 277 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…5944backed ASTRAL | 25c | 160.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 697 | 32%223 W · 474 L | -46.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Ursa | 61c | 154.15$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Ursa | 62c | 118.81$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 333 | 52.6%175 W · 158 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Ursa | 61c | 110.05$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 402 | 47.8%192 W · 210 L | +11.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed Ursa | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Ursa | 54c | 97.66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed ASTRAL | 41c | 89.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 418 | 47.1%197 W · 221 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed ASTRAL | 41c | 83.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 799 | 51.7%413 W · 386 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7344…98f6backed ASTRAL | 44c | 78.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed ASTRAL | 45c | 77.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed ASTRAL | 39c | 77.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 392 | 37.2%146 W · 246 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d58…de06backed ASTRAL | 40c | 75.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70e0…6821backed ASTRAL | 34c | 74.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9927…f135backed Ursa | 56c | 69.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 53 | 77.4%41 W · 12 L | +7.5wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…1b0dbacked ASTRAL | 37c | 65.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked ASTRAL | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdffe…b4d3backed ASTRAL | 40c | 58.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 146 | 30.8%45 W · 101 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf901…5f48backed ASTRAL | 38c | 57.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked ASTRAL | 41c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 956 | 42.6%407 W · 549 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5583…1fbbbacked ASTRAL | 40c | 50.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc78…a301backed ASTRAL | 40c | 43.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481f…3141backed ASTRAL | 39c | 41.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Ursa | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…b08bbacked ASTRAL | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | -10.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6c…02b5backed ASTRAL | 52c | 37.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed ASTRAL | 41c | 34.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 250 | 45.2%113 W · 137 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a84…af78backed ASTRAL | 39c | 34.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Ursa | 77c | 34.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 1,274 | 71.5%911 W · 363 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked ASTRAL | 47c | 29.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 472 | 60%283 W · 189 L | +31.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed ASTRAL | 37c | 28.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1,038 | 39.9%414 W · 624 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf11a…1002backed Ursa | 50c | 25.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 278 | 48.6%135 W · 143 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Ursa | 55c | 22.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 368 | 45.9%169 W · 199 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc960…8b29backed Ursa | 67c | 20.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group Dthis page
- Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Ursa - Map 2 WinnerUrsa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.