Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c5739db38315c0edbe4db9ac3f9cd8cb3ca0c43a34bcaa6af0790da2a762b85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- paiN Gamingof paiN Gaming, L1ga Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,237 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed L1ga Team | 13c | 3,781$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.93 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed L1ga Team | 17c | 730$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.99 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3860…bda6backed L1ga Team | 36c | 416.67$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed L1ga Team | 14c | 304.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c20…41b3backed L1ga Team | 10c | 299.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 173 | 23.1%40 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7196…dde2backed L1ga Team | 20c | 257.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…d00abacked L1ga Team | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 251 | 47.4%119 W · 132 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed L1ga Team | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 230 | 50.9%117 W · 113 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…263cbacked L1ga Team | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 241 | 37.3%90 W · 151 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed paiN Gaming | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed L1ga Team | 40c | 91.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked paiN Gaming | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked paiN Gaming | 71c | 68.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed paiN Gaming | 63c | 57.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed paiN Gaming | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…ca5dbacked paiN Gaming | 65c | 47.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefa1…8a16backed paiN Gaming | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked paiN Gaming | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs L1ga Team (BO3) - CCT PlayoffspaiN Gaming won
- Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs L1ga Team - Game 2 WinnerpaiN Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.