Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e8f40a5d1d5bd1fbaa8e3238a76cacb033f38d0023972f1dd9148e3252cfddc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- paiN Gamingof paiN Gaming, L1ga Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,370 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23ec…759fbacked L1ga Team | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed L1ga Team | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 104 | 0%0 W · 104 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed L1ga Team | 6c | 856$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked L1ga Team | 24c | 800$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed L1ga Team | 25c | 706.09$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.46 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed L1ga Team | 29c | 637.95$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.34 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed paiN Gaming | 73c | 552.51$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.85 | 230 | 50.9%117 W · 113 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed L1ga Team | 27c | 520.5$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.13 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked L1ga Team | 24c | 451.29$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.78 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed L1ga Team | 23c | 437.85$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…263cbacked L1ga Team | 30c | 435.38$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.49 | 241 | 37.3%90 W · 151 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c67…e40ebacked L1ga Team | 24c | 399$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.76 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked L1ga Team | 19c | 386$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.34 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked L1ga Team | 28c | 340.55$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.02 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed paiN Gaming | 74c | 320$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.8 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked paiN Gaming | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed paiN Gaming | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed paiN Gaming | 78c | 266.14$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…b3f9backed paiN Gaming | 31c | 229.13$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked L1ga Team | 40c | 209.42$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.74 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2f…ac6abacked paiN Gaming | 77c | 175.62$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +6.6wins | +0.30per pick | 61cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed L1ga Team | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed paiN Gaming | 55c | 152.71$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.36 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked paiN Gaming | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…d00abacked paiN Gaming | 52c | 144.47$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.55 | 251 | 47.4%119 W · 132 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…ca5dbacked paiN Gaming | 75c | 127.13$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c20…41b3backed L1ga Team | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 23.1%40 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed L1ga Team | 28c | 98.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed L1ga Team | 18c | 93.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed L1ga Team | 26c | 89.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed L1ga Team | 42c | 80.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked paiN Gaming | 53c | 73.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed L1ga Team | 29c | 67.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked L1ga Team | 20c | 67.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18b7…fff9backed L1ga Team | 39c | 62.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed paiN Gaming | 62c | 61.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed paiN Gaming | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked L1ga Team | 19c | 57.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…d3f1backed L1ga Team | 24c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed L1ga Team | 28c | 51.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked paiN Gaming | 77c | 50.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 138 | 54.3%75 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64f0…b6c5backed L1ga Team | 60c | 45.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed paiN Gaming | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed L1ga Team | 51c | 39.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…ac6dbacked paiN Gaming | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked paiN Gaming | 66c | 37.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed paiN Gaming | 60c | 34.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed paiN Gaming | 77c | 29.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…6237backed paiN Gaming | 38c | 28.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked paiN Gaming | 44c | 27.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed paiN Gaming | 46c | 26.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…4089backed paiN Gaming | 48c | 24.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed paiN Gaming | 71c | 24.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…01e9backed paiN Gaming | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked paiN Gaming | 51c | 23.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1676…ab19backed paiN Gaming | 51c | 23.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed paiN Gaming | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked paiN Gaming | 56c | 21.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…9a01backed paiN Gaming | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked paiN Gaming | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked paiN Gaming | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed paiN Gaming | 76c | 15.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad96…3781backed paiN Gaming | 80c | 14.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs L1ga Team (BO3) - CCT PlayoffspaiN Gaming won
- Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs L1ga Team - Game 1 WinnerpaiN Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.