TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-11.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Duke Blue Devilsof Duke Blue Devils, Virginia Tech Hokies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,412
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,471

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,412 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6bb3…758ebacked Virginia Tech Hokies44c3,739$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,645.0174152.6%390 W · 351 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e82…7670backed Duke Blue Devils56c2,243$1,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.8618650%93 W · 93 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Duke Blue Devils52c1,709$895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.5812,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Duke Blue Devils56c1,302$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.881,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Virginia Tech Hokies48c894.74$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.114,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Virginia Tech Hokies45c533.68$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.425,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Virginia Tech Hokies48c151.44$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6958345.5%265 W · 318 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Virginia Tech Hokies49c118.34$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5850546.9%237 W · 268 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Duke Blue Devils51c117.64$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.644,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6f2…1255backed Duke Blue Devils67c99.55$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.841968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Virginia Tech Hokies44c95.02$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3466831.4%210 W · 458 L-43.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Virginia Tech Hokies27c84.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.945,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Duke Blue Devils53c70$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.61,16255.2%641 W · 521 L+25.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4855…6a41backed Duke Blue Devils56c62.5$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.532652.8%172 W · 154 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fed…0d78backed Virginia Tech Hokies49c53$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.974643.5%20 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1aa…16cfbacked Duke Blue Devils56c44.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.647661.8%47 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf6…129dbacked Virginia Tech Hokies48c39.39$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1912153.7%65 W · 56 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d10…e17cbacked Duke Blue Devils51c22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.782839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc9db…ab38backed Duke Blue Devils51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.82751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Duke Blue Devils78c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.963043.3%13 W · 17 L-4.6wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-33.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.