Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c75826f1fcd66de6cd14bafa254522e5f5649159c07bb26e9f41390ccac2638
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Duke Blue Devilsof Duke Blue Devils, Virginia Tech Hokies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Virginia Tech Hokies | 44c | 3,739$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645.01 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Duke Blue Devils | 56c | 2,243$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.86 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Duke Blue Devils | 52c | 1,709$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.58 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Duke Blue Devils | 56c | 1,302$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.88 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Virginia Tech Hokies | 48c | 894.74$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.11 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Virginia Tech Hokies | 45c | 533.68$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.42 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Virginia Tech Hokies | 48c | 151.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.69 | 583 | 45.5%265 W · 318 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Virginia Tech Hokies | 49c | 118.34$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 505 | 46.9%237 W · 268 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Duke Blue Devils | 51c | 117.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f2…1255backed Duke Blue Devils | 67c | 99.55$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Virginia Tech Hokies | 44c | 95.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 668 | 31.4%210 W · 458 L | -43.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Virginia Tech Hokies | 27c | 84.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Duke Blue Devils | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Duke Blue Devils | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Virginia Tech Hokies | 49c | 53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Duke Blue Devils | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Virginia Tech Hokies | 48c | 39.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…e17cbacked Duke Blue Devils | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…ab38backed Duke Blue Devils | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Duke Blue Devils | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-11.5)this page
- Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Tech HokiesDuke Blue Devils won
- Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Tech Hokies: O/U 148.5Under won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-12.5)Duke Blue Devils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.