MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c87b9266d051a9bfc7cb2fae1fe86ae1bbb4437885e0e8732385b9a2774944f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed New York Mets | 36c | 1,540$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.4 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed New York Mets | 37c | 1,514$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.4 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 1,372$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.41 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed New York Mets | 37c | 1,217$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.21 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 1,159$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.19 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 999.98$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.99 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 20c | 999.29$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.17 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 80c | 978.86$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.77 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 699$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.57 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 207.74$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed New York Mets | 36c | 176.71$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Mets | 35c | 125.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 101$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 105 | 59%62 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Mets | 29c | 99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked New York Mets | 36c | 67.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b9…2592backed New York Mets | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Mets | 37c | 52.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 52.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 34.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 31.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 23.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 22.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-6.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York MetsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.