Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c9882aa9ca1171a1201e6daba8d92986ee1804920891ecd8ef44d2a9982f2b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 43c | 552.72$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 65c | 496.3$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.36 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 13c | 406.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 340.87$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 56c | 249.27$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.94 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 220.72$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 65c | 204.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.79 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 54c | 195.28$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.34 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 190.11$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 169.87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.21 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 77c | 148.93$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 142.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 80c | 135.91$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 125.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.45 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 72c | 100.9$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 45c | 99.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.27 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 80c | 98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 30c | 82.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 34c | 80.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 71.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 69c | 70.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 58c | 64.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 43c | 57.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 68c | 51.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4211…b21cbacked Yes | 39c | 48.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 53c | 47.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…b7bfbacked No | 40c | 47.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6969…c0c1backed Yes | 79c | 45.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 42c | 44.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 33c | 43.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 69c | 42.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 49c | 38.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 62c | 36.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…527ebacked No | 32c | 33.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 41cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 40c | 30.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 37c | 28.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 26.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 78c | 25.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…f9c4backed No | 52c | 23.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 64c | 22.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe314…3c94backed No | 69c | 21.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 72c | 20.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 72c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 73c | 19.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 62c | 18.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 63c | 17.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C or higher on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.