Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f3ed5be6f6c75394af6e92cabc48e3147a0f59167abc8ce47e0bade71cdefb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 56c | 356.04$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 261.62$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 43c | 230.73$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 172.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 44c | 169.66$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.65 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 31c | 165.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 149.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 147.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 58c | 144.76$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 60c | 144.18$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 143.48$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 29c | 126.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 41c | 122.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 61c | 114.35$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…a21abacked No | 63c | 114.08$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…1366backed Yes | 30c | 106.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 66c | 99.27$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 29c | 99.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked Yes | 14c | 91.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 90.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 25c | 88.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 36c | 70.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 19c | 69.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 23c | 63.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 59.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…cb41backed Yes | 48c | 48.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 48.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 58c | 47.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 63c | 46.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…309cbacked No | 65c | 45.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 61c | 45.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 43c | 43.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 77c | 39.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 60c | 37.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 41c | 36.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 62c | 36.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 58c | 33.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…292bbacked No | 59c | 31.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…ac2fbacked Yes | 42c | 30.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 43c | 29.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 44c | 28.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 37c | 27.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…4fd0backed No | 54c | 26.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -10.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 57c | 26.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 57c | 24.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 62c | 23.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x295f…37b0backed No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…ebdcbacked No | 64c | 21.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 64 | 81.3%52 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 20.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 57c | 19.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 62c | 19.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 56c | 19.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C or higher on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.