World Politics · resolved market
Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c9a94239a10378f05d313e73734b77f5976ca24fb65711cc86c99d3800a5013
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 2c | 2,777$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 1c | 1,556$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 15c | 1,407$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.68 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0da…71e3backed No | 2c | 1,250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…4787backed No | 2c | 916.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…46cbbacked Yes | 76c | 591.52$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed No | 5c | 509.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf1…b3afbacked No | 15c | 336.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 71c | 119$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 15c | 104.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed No | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 18c | 77.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…3128backed Yes | 75c | 66.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…52d0backed Yes | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5781…95a2backed Yes | 80c | 20.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -11.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election?this page
- Will Felipe Camozzato win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election?No won
- Will Juliana Brizola win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election?No won
- Will Maria do Rosário win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election?No won
- Will another candidate win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.