Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: HNK Rijeka (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cb56a62abb1d2bb6d32fc4b5cd8c513c38e9639a9286921a8f6e870f39ca53e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Derry City FCof HNK Rijeka, Derry City FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed HNK Rijeka | 37c | 6,656$2,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,477.2 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Derry City FC | 72c | 4,578$3,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,271.5 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Derry City FC | 66c | 974.56$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.35 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed HNK Rijeka | 8c | 887$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Derry City FC | 61c | 750$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.5 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Derry City FC | 64c | 706.39$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.81 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Derry City FC | 61c | 700$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked HNK Rijeka | 34c | 496.21$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.88 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Derry City FC | 64c | 390.6$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.62 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Derry City FC | 61c | 321.62$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.43 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8509…fd97backed HNK Rijeka | 10c | 246.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked HNK Rijeka | 40c | 232.56$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Derry City FC | 62c | 168.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.22 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9e…208cbacked HNK Rijeka | 38c | 155.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Derry City FC | 63c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed HNK Rijeka | 40c | 108.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Derry City FC | 60c | 64.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Derry City FC | 60c | 63.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Derry City FC | 63c | 56.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +7.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Derry City FC | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Derry City FC | 63c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Derry City FC | 63c | 40.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Derry City FC | 65c | 39.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Derry City FC | 60c | 22.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c7…216abacked Derry City FC | 65c | 18.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +5.9wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Derry City FC | 62c | 17.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Derry City FC | 71c | 16.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: HNK Rijeka (-2.5)this page
- HNK Rijeka vs. Derry City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- HNK Rijeka vs. Derry City FC: Derry City FC O/U 0.5Under won
- HNK Rijeka vs. Derry City FC: Derry City FC O/U 2.5Under won
- HNK Rijeka vs. Derry City FC: HNK Rijeka O/U 2.5Under won
- HNK Rijeka vs. Derry City FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- HNK Rijeka vs. Derry City FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- HNK Rijeka vs. Derry City FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- HNK Rijeka vs. Derry City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- HNK Rijeka vs. Derry City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Derry City FC (-1.5)HNK Rijeka won
- Spread: HNK Rijeka (-1.5)Derry City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.