Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: HNK Rijeka (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33b9a71dca5b5978fde2d114b23737191f2288faa64df551918fb92691604581
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Derry City FCof HNK Rijeka, Derry City FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Derry City FC | 59c | 10,147$5,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,180.51 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked HNK Rijeka | 40c | 7,063$2,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,817.97 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed HNK Rijeka | 38c | 3,640$1,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.94 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Derry City FC | 58c | 3,191$1,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335.59 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked HNK Rijeka | 42c | 1,926$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.15 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed HNK Rijeka | 43c | 1,372$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.43 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Derry City FC | 58c | 1,315$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.2 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Derry City FC | 59c | 1,132$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.12 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked HNK Rijeka | 57c | 700$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked HNK Rijeka | 51c | 606.38$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.25 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Derry City FC | 57c | 513.84$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.15 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed HNK Rijeka | 42c | 385.98$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.99 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked HNK Rijeka | 52c | 336.54$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed HNK Rijeka | 46c | 311.8$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Derry City FC | 60c | 311.19$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.08 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked HNK Rijeka | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.27 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Derry City FC | 52c | 250.34$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.96 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed HNK Rijeka | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed HNK Rijeka | 40c | 231.82$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.83 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed HNK Rijeka | 40c | 195$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Derry City FC | 50c | 172.42$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.11 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Derry City FC | 58c | 168.06$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.12 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Derry City FC | 36c | 164.31$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.37 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed HNK Rijeka | 58c | 161.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.45 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked HNK Rijeka | 42c | 151.8$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.76 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed HNK Rijeka | 38c | 146.09$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed HNK Rijeka | 60c | 129$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Derry City FC | 53c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Derry City FC | 60c | 73.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Derry City FC | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Derry City FC | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed HNK Rijeka | 41c | 54.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Derry City FC | 36c | 48.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8509…fd97backed Derry City FC | 62c | 44.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Derry City FC | 60c | 40.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked HNK Rijeka | 56c | 39.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c7…216abacked Derry City FC | 54c | 36.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +5.9wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed HNK Rijeka | 41c | 31.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…70ffbacked HNK Rijeka | 64c | 30.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed HNK Rijeka | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Derry City FC | 53c | 21.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: HNK Rijeka (-1.5)this page
- HNK Rijeka vs. Derry City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- HNK Rijeka vs. Derry City FC: Derry City FC O/U 0.5Under won
- HNK Rijeka vs. Derry City FC: Derry City FC O/U 2.5Under won
- HNK Rijeka vs. Derry City FC: HNK Rijeka O/U 2.5Under won
- HNK Rijeka vs. Derry City FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- HNK Rijeka vs. Derry City FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- HNK Rijeka vs. Derry City FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- HNK Rijeka vs. Derry City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- HNK Rijeka vs. Derry City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Derry City FC (-1.5)HNK Rijeka won
- Spread: HNK Rijeka (-2.5)Derry City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.