College Football · resolved market
Will Utah beat Arizona?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cbc925d5f9c8f6634a2ea94a1fbfbd94a9e4f71623914fb21ce910b5d337ecd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizonaof Utah, Arizona
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Utah | 14c | 4,442$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.39 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Utah | 8c | 2,422$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.18 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Arizona | 38c | 1,397$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.28 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Utah | 79c | 1,271$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Utah | 30c | 1,076$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.3 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Utah | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Arizona | 48c | 879.66$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.26 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Utah | 71c | 801.85$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.96 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ce…ab3abacked Utah | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…30f5backed Arizona | 25c | 503.62$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.62 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe81b…edfbbacked Arizona | 80c | 494.05$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked Utah | 78c | 475$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Arizona | 22c | 332.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.73 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x794e…6a77backed Arizona | 48c | 300$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked Utah | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51c…502dbacked Arizona | 25c | 259.86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…2ff3backed Arizona | 25c | 208.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…0a62backed Utah | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…0b47backed Utah | 72c | 151$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.72 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Utah | 76c | 150$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Utah | 75c | 150$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc8…a401backed Arizona | 24c | 124$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff9c…2c98backed Arizona | 24c | 120$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Utah | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed Arizona | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +8.2wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Arizona | 23c | 64.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e61…5788backed Utah | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Arizona | 25c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Utah beat Arizona?this page
- Will Utah and Arizona combine for 48 or more points?Under won
- Will Utah beat Arizona by 11 or more points?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.