Tennis · resolved market
New Delhi: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jay Clarke
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cbd8d16c53bfba7636e3cfad75f34cdbceb843f1edb982a4f20882fc1b82bed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Clarkeof Kasnikowski, Clarke
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kasnikowski | 10c | 7,646$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.92 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Kasnikowski | 13c | 4,620$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.24 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Clarke | 73c | 3,078$2,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.74 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Clarke | 67c | 592.14$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.83 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Kasnikowski | 55c | 554.99$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Kasnikowski | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 151 | 17.9%27 W · 124 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8082…4d66backed Clarke | 44c | 378.91$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.4 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e59…1520backed Kasnikowski | 58c | 344.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 307 | 44.6%137 W · 170 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Kasnikowski | 38c | 331$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.02 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Kasnikowski | 17c | 323.63$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Clarke | 67c | 270$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Clarke | 37c | 267.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.74 | 733 | 50.9%373 W · 360 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Kasnikowski | 54c | 227.44$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.58 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7c…d12fbacked Clarke | 39c | 205.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.13 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Kasnikowski | 43c | 197$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.86 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Kasnikowski | 34c | 191.85$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.11 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Kasnikowski | 14c | 156.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 255 | 42%107 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Kasnikowski | 12c | 149$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…20aebacked Clarke | 63c | 148.05$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 524 | 60.9%319 W · 205 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Kasnikowski | 24c | 143.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Clarke | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Kasnikowski | 66c | 121.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Kasnikowski | 60c | 119.45$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…4167backed Clarke | 69c | 113.3$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Clarke | 47c | 105.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 248 | 26.2%65 W · 183 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Clarke | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 542 | 49.3%267 W · 275 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…e4ccbacked Kasnikowski | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 515 | 39.8%205 W · 310 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Kasnikowski | 51c | 88.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 218 | 43.1%94 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…8d9bbacked Kasnikowski | 39c | 87.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 319 | 41.4%132 W · 187 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Clarke | 39c | 72.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Clarke | 37c | 67.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 79 | 41.8%33 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Clarke | 78c | 67.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 302 | 54.3%164 W · 138 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Clarke | 54c | 64.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Clarke | 35c | 63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb3…4d75backed Kasnikowski | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Clarke | 44c | 45.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 412 | 72.8%300 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…4c1bbacked Clarke | 44c | 42.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…5585backed Kasnikowski | 35c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…52d4backed Clarke | 44c | 33.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02fc…192fbacked Kasnikowski | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Kasnikowski | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67d…ffc4backed Kasnikowski | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Kasnikowski | 62c | 25.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 423 | 58.6%248 W · 175 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f3…1fc1backed Kasnikowski | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bf…28edbacked Kasnikowski | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Kasnikowski | 63c | 23.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…d2b5backed Kasnikowski | 61c | 21.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 416 | 68%283 W · 133 L | +23.6wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb846…b8d0backed Kasnikowski | 62c | 19.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.