South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Botafogo FR vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cbf79134c39f7018fc0276403e7c779f3474b56476c58c0fa1fa70999333e97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Yes | 42c | 5,027$2,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,111.34 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 59c | 1,895$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.39 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 62c | 1,624$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.35 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 69c | 944.66$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.79 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Yes | 31c | 863.94$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.4 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 64c | 620.34$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.53 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 75c | 562.03$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.11 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 58c | 556$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.52 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 31c | 445.75$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.09 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed No | 69c | 322.58$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes | 31c | 160.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…9f00backed No | 70c | 158.18$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37eb…6bf7backed No | 69c | 149.34$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 30c | 124.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 69c | 106.54$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…5ba4backed Yes | 30c | 82.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3e…ef94backed No | 69c | 81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd1…c7debacked Yes | 32c | 70.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 32c | 43.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 71c | 42.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…1e4bbacked No | 62c | 36.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…9c28backed No | 70c | 30.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed No | 75c | 29.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14c6…2adabacked No | 70c | 19.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 67c | 17.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 2,614 | 54.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L | +25.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 70c | 15.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 212 | 66.5%141 W · 71 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 72c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Botafogo FR vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?this page
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-01-29?Yes won
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-01-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.