South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-01-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f25ce1da975fb8e703cceed71d9f235a68c114b1c086e27bf355a0973d24e5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 60c | 3,089$1,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,853.4 | 187 | 42.2%79 W · 108 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 38c | 2,476$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,537.69 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f0…e0a7backed Yes | 36c | 1,374$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +174.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 39c | 1,329$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.31 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…9c28backed No | 65c | 1,185$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 820.84$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.13 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed No | 66c | 809.54$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.3 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Yes | 26c | 752.62$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.75 | 313 | 49.8%156 W · 157 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 74c | 717.49$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.22 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 21c | 646.46$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.7 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 63c | 587.19$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.05 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4b…7b6fbacked No | 65c | 502.92$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 48c | 426.62$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.12 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 62c | 413.46$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.94 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked No | 62c | 387.24$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.09 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 59c | 370.85$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.25 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…df06backed Yes | 41c | 365.85$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.85 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 123 | 31.7%39 W · 84 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 25c | 328$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.23 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 37c | 310$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.4 | 124 | 43.5%54 W · 70 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 73c | 305$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.35 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60a…1613backed Yes | 39c | 285.66$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 63c | 237.05$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.34 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Yes | 54c | 209.99$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed No | 63c | 206.35$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 36c | 199.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.91 | 250 | 21.6%54 W · 196 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 38c | 183.02$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1670…2277backed Yes | 37c | 162.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.52 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 32c | 160$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 34c | 145$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 35c | 137.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.8 | 95 | 22.1%21 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed No | 50c | 137.64$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 62c | 131.35$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.94 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Yes | 40c | 130$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.44 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 46c | 129.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af0…dd99backed No | 64c | 103.86$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…1e04backed Yes | 38c | 76.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…4ababacked No | 62c | 53.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed No | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 103 | 26.2%27 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 35c | 50.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…1e4bbacked No | 73c | 27.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 44c | 25.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 274 | 42%115 W · 159 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…9f00backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ed…e29fbacked No | 65c | 20.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 73c | 19.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 71c | 14.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…356fbacked No | 72c | 14.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-01-29?this page
- Will Botafogo FR vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?No won
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-01-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.