Weather · resolved market
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cd9ce00eff4cc38e7408db04e410ed0778264dc16ee1dc2fb9b4d5c4c08f32d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed No | 70c | 561.71$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.08 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 45c | 461.75$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.98 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 38c | 312.72$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.57 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f15…52f1backed Yes | 42c | 306.96$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.88 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…7fe9backed No | 61c | 299.09$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 50c | 195.15$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.02 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x565e…875dbacked Yes | 45c | 177.24$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.96 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…8554backed Yes | 69c | 174.82$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…8679backed No | 58c | 171.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed No | 16c | 126.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb857…9648backed Yes | 56c | 105.48$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507b…0742backed No | 53c | 99.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdc…444dbacked Yes | 54c | 84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 37c | 83.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…c3bcbacked No | 68c | 74.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbceb…0049backed Yes | 66c | 69.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 68.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e49…0424backed No | 58c | 66.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed Yes | 32c | 43.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…dab5backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…57c8backed Yes | 51c | 30.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +5.5wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a0…69aebacked No | 52c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…bc17backed No | 45c | 28.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc07…53f6backed Yes | 64c | 26.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…680bbacked Yes | 44c | 25.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…16c0backed Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 78c | 13.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?this page
- Will there be more than 14 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.