Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Idaho Vandals vs. Cal Poly Mustangs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cecf352931cbd5945c2a44cb7aabfb9a59e22f5e8b2fb7d2e9b996f020931c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Idaho Vandalsof Idaho Vandals, Cal Poly Mustangs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 1c | 6,489$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Idaho Vandals | 56c | 4,033$2,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760.07 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 34c | 2,628$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.37 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 61c | 2,443$1,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.92 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc0…a8a0backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 9c | 2,222$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 20c | 2,111$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.72 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Idaho Vandals | 69c | 1,832$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.08 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…9762backed Idaho Vandals | 33c | 1,715$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +114.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…ed44backed Idaho Vandals | 27c | 1,556$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.56 | 464 | 46.8%217 W · 247 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 64c | 1,326$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.9 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 46c | 1,264$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.4 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 49c | 916$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.84 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Idaho Vandals | 37c | 888.72$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.8 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Idaho Vandals | 70c | 726.41$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.72 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Idaho Vandals | 51c | 672.2$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.36 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Idaho Vandals | 56c | 657$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.28 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5520…32ffbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 45c | 482.49$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.27 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04c8…8538backed Idaho Vandals | 74c | 407.25$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…8c7abacked Idaho Vandals | 54c | 398.69$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.82 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 9c | 391.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 147 | 8.8%13 W · 134 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 24c | 360$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.54 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Idaho Vandals | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 24c | 224$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 383 | 43.6%167 W · 216 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 47c | 213.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.15 | 210 | 50%105 W · 105 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 10c | 210$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 456 | 44.5%203 W · 253 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 45c | 209.09$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.09 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 21c | 201.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 192 | 37%71 W · 121 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e5…fe31backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 4.2%4 W · 91 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -86%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Idaho Vandals | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +6.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 9c | 138.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 46c | 133$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Idaho Vandals | 62c | 101.97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 735 | 49.1%361 W · 374 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 36c | 101.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 490 | 43.1%211 W · 279 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…d08abacked Idaho Vandals | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Idaho Vandals | 59c | 98.41$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Idaho Vandals | 39c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 449 | 55.2%248 W · 201 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked Idaho Vandals | 53c | 45.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…bd4bbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 29c | 36.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e3…b595backed Idaho Vandals | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.