Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d04ec42a916b5f42bc704a4fefd000fdffa45864d0990cc9b71a8a30cc03945
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 40c | 1,161$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.63 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…a2b8backed No | 2c | 631.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 54c | 330.38$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.17 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 45c | 323.35$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.92 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 222.79$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 177.6$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798d…b91fbacked Yes | 43c | 175$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 57c | 166.4$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.63 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 8c | 162.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 27c | 162.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.44 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 32c | 135.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 20c | 132.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 38c | 120$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 40c | 119.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.37 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 112.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…41dfbacked No | 73c | 112.14$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.41 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 92.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 45c | 77.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 80c | 74.09$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 51c | 63.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 63.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4671…b5eebacked No | 63c | 62.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6760…6409backed Yes | 42c | 58.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 64c | 54.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 47c | 51.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 80c | 50.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 44.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 42c | 43.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 42c | 40.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x525e…c58fbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b09…68babacked Yes | 39c | 37.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 54c | 36.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 38c | 30.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…680bbacked No | 63c | 28.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…5f37backed No | 69c | 28.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad00…c409backed No | 62c | 27.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 50c | 27.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 25.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 66c | 25.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c28…2343backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked No | 61c | 23.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 44c | 23.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fef…816bbacked No | 58c | 21.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d52…ebb2backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 62c | 19.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 72c | 14.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 75c | 13.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.