Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0afcec9f7f635172b1e0fd3b67af414cb61fde9faaa3d72b2704a05fb300539
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 6c | 625$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 65c | 286.04$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.55 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 212.36$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 26c | 191.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…31a3backed Yes | 16c | 182$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 34c | 137.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 43c | 135.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 44c | 130.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 22c | 113$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 110.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 42c | 101$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.64 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 34c | 88.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…6e6abacked Yes | 24c | 82.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Yes | 59c | 80.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 74.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 57c | 74.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 52c | 72.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 28c | 56.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…0d25backed Yes | 67c | 55.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 52c | 54.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00be…e93cbacked Yes | 21c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c63…fafebacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe960…734ebacked Yes | 58c | 48.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 29c | 47.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 25c | 44.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 36c | 40.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 78c | 39.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 39.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 39c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…85c6backed No | 79c | 35.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 60c | 32.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x694e…d4a5backed Yes | 71c | 32.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 31.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 59c | 30.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 48c | 27.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eed…87e3backed No | 79c | 27.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…8d25backed No | 79c | 26.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…422ebacked No | 78c | 24.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 77c | 23.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 21.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 21.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…401dbacked No | 70c | 19.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 78c | 18.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed Yes | 72c | 14.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.