AI · resolved market
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d115b703da558b6d8dbcf0648712b98b7928b0033e7662f818f1dcebd82f33f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b24…e4a6backed No | 23c | 21,520$4,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,570.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0641…4dcfbacked Yes | 4c | 10,580$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1d…fedebacked Yes | 77c | 6,020$4,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,635.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3004…710cbacked Yes | 77c | 5,880$4,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,527.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e1…bdb2backed Yes | 77c | 4,950$3,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,811.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9c…8f51backed Yes | 77c | 4,670$3,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,595.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc8…a8edbacked No | 40c | 1,968$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.13 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f43…cf42backed Yes | 77c | 1,005$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…9262backed Yes | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked Yes | 5c | 827.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +77%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fa…7fe2backed Yes | 8c | 679.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +138.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac2…176dbacked Yes | 59c | 392.38$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +257.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…6872backed Yes | 21c | 389.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6327…cfe1backed No | 36c | 350.42$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +175.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 29c | 325.52$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.05 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 4c | 276.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.84 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b0…5663backed Yes | 20c | 256.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 12c | 240.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 23c | 239.21$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.17 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…1773backed Yes | 77c | 210$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +111.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 73c | 200.79$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 73c | 178.9$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.45 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58e…e7adbacked Yes | 77c | 119.96$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed No | 18c | 115.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.11 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 113.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.03 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc0…36dcbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5def…1283backed Yes | 79c | 73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 20c | 70.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb523…7138backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6f…d3fcbacked Yes | 79c | 62.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7978…33f5backed Yes | 66c | 60.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…2acebacked No | 20c | 58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 37c | 56.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 23c | 54.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…7198backed Yes | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab9…fd27backed Yes | 77c | 31.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f4…6cd5backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafbd…d857backed Yes | 55c | 24.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd5…1492backed Yes | 77c | 21.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +485.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x608c…be6cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31f…260cbacked Yes | 78c | 18.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…e93fbacked Yes | 75c | 14.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 75cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?this page
- Will AutoSleep Track Sleep on Watch be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?No won
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?Yes won
- Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.