Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d25519a0416395b0c206c415d87c3e8eee8ebbabeff455851d72d019ab0a3fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,632 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe138…6aa4backed Yes | 0c | 14,372$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 18c | 672.79$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.86 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 630.65$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 9c | 424.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 377.8$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.24 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1762…c83ebacked Yes | 16c | 303.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 19c | 259$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 14c | 258$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2aa…586fbacked Yes | 17c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 8c | 193.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa692…fbafbacked Yes | 17c | 191$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 35c | 187$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 169.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 7c | 167.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 18c | 164.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 33c | 144.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 23c | 133.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 129.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 123.9$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 14c | 122.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 119.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6aa…e302backed Yes | 20c | 115$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe091…0e5dbacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 75c | 99.72$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd1…372abacked Yes | 13c | 85.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf95a…a8a4backed Yes | 14c | 84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 17c | 82.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 37c | 73.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 24c | 70.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 67.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 72c | 65.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12bd…ee48backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 31c | 59.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 35c | 56.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x702f…1d50backed No | 80c | 51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef9…3f42backed Yes | 21c | 49.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 40.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…3578backed Yes | 29c | 37.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80c…a113backed Yes | 32c | 36.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 35.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 70c | 29.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 66c | 23.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3387…6634backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…e1b2backed No | 67c | 17.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x190a…f4abbacked No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a36…27bebacked No | 73c | 15.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd54…3e25backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 67c | 14.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…0eb8backed No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 80c | 13.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.71 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 51°F or below on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or higher on March 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.