Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or higher on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85d635a1efcca20aa66fa24a5eb3b4bf912754cd865d73f5d928bbfb4a2c105f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,922 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 3c | 2,876$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.83 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 3c | 1,437$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 10c | 823.39$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 61c | 646.38$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.99 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 80c | 616.52$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.24 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 27c | 584.82$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.61 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e36…70e3backed Yes | 24c | 515.45$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.07 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 42c | 502.66$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.66 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 20c | 496.11$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 67c | 468.65$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.47 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 465.06$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 14c | 449.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7919…ca3fbacked No | 77c | 440.9$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.49 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 63c | 427.97$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.22 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 8c | 400.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 27c | 390.35$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.75 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 54c | 363$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.69 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…ca5fbacked Yes | 71c | 332.15$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 49c | 322.69$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.32 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed No | 5c | 316.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ca…ad5dbacked Yes | 49c | 303.35$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.35 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed No | 66c | 300.09$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.13 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.51 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2aa…586fbacked Yes | 52c | 295.95$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.97 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 52c | 271.71$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.71 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 52c | 258$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.65 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…8a87backed No | 16c | 257.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 16c | 244.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 48c | 226.8$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.47 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 18c | 217.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 207.49$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.52 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…e2b0backed No | 45c | 200.86$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.54 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca1…baf3backed No | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc3…f918backed Yes | 55c | 181.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6db…810ebacked Yes | 70c | 179.42$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbe…f3debacked No | 21c | 178.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd559…afc4backed No | 50c | 176$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked No | 37c | 175.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 50c | 171.07$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…4f75backed Yes | 40c | 166.72$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.55 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 50c | 162.42$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.21 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…e3bfbacked Yes | 62c | 156.81$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 50c | 155.1$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e38…b4cbbacked No | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 39c | 148.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…46c2backed Yes | 69c | 145.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 70c | 131.61$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 30c | 129.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked No | 70c | 122$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.34 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 79c | 120.65$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd80c…a113backed No | 19c | 118.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…0d2abacked No | 48c | 112.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc92e…4ef4backed Yes | 72c | 105$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 64c | 101.87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 23c | 101$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.24 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…22ebbacked Yes | 50c | 100.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…8b9cbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2b…fd54backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 60c | 99.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 29c | 97.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.41 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 79c | 94.87$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…45acbacked No | 50c | 91.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 78c | 90.51$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.86 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…24e5backed Yes | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked Yes | 24c | 80.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 80.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 19c | 75.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 75.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaddc…b43dbacked Yes | 50c | 74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12bd…ee48backed Yes | 27c | 73.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…7df7backed Yes | 44c | 73.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a7…ab77backed No | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 73c | 68.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…503fbacked No | 20c | 68.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…a900backed Yes | 50c | 68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 75c | 62.17$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1723…1795backed No | 18c | 58.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x870c…40ddbacked Yes | 50c | 56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef9…3f42backed Yes | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…1aa6backed Yes | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc90…e4f2backed Yes | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd1…372abacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91cb…0bbebacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 66c | 46.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 54c | 46.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 61c | 43.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 80c | 42.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…cf14backed Yes | 71c | 42.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x916e…2be2backed No | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…3f67backed Yes | 50c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…b127backed Yes | 50c | 40.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 76 | 14.5%11 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815c…2851backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 51cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3718…663ebacked No | 37c | 39.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4505…1cf0backed Yes | 28c | 38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or higher on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 51°F or below on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.