Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a2f6007169c900e309c42735dde0216a632fb62ca3e5ab93ff3b6017ee6f7b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,893 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c82…4d02backed Yes | 23c | 4,200$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab0…788abacked Yes | 24c | 4,190$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9672…c39bbacked Yes | 24c | 4,155$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057e…fd99backed Yes | 25c | 3,981$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5b…bd1abacked Yes | 28c | 2,570$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…54dabacked No | 77c | 1,410$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8d…b370backed No | 76c | 1,400$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x494e…d652backed No | 77c | 1,400$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…2e20backed No | 76c | 1,390$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4a…83bdbacked No | 77c | 1,390$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…acf9backed No | 76c | 1,390$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…19fcbacked No | 76c | 1,385$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…ca85backed No | 76c | 1,385$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dec…c131backed No | 76c | 1,380$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…63d7backed No | 75c | 1,359$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb62…0fd5backed No | 72c | 1,328$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561c…8b82backed No | 75c | 1,322$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7924…30dbbacked No | 75c | 1,300$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…d7bbbacked No | 72c | 1,242$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,132$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe138…6aa4backed Yes | 2c | 920.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 612.98$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…8a87backed Yes | 17c | 513.56$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.36 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 40c | 500.07$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 75c | 500$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.81 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 73cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 459.63$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.81 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 10c | 346.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 334.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc92e…4ef4backed Yes | 23c | 329.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80c…a113backed Yes | 25c | 306.75$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.65 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6e…5e73backed Yes | 23c | 305$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 286.65$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.56 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 16c | 276.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 26c | 258$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.92 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 17c | 205.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 26c | 200.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x436b…7e6ebacked Yes | 22c | 195.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 12c | 189.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 21c | 172.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 77c | 163.98$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 161.66$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…5b16backed No | 74c | 160.14$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc874…54a3backed Yes | 21c | 151.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 151.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed Yes | 27c | 148.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…8a20backed Yes | 32c | 129$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 73c | 124.3$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 22c | 124.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd15…077abacked Yes | 27c | 123.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31f9…e4d1backed Yes | 27c | 119.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…0f78backed Yes | 28c | 119$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 117.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6032…4245backed Yes | 11c | 114.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 113.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…af80backed Yes | 28c | 108$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ef…e2a4backed Yes | 33c | 100.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 62c | 99.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 97.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 17c | 96.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa692…fbafbacked Yes | 29c | 90.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 31c | 88.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…9889backed Yes | 25c | 79.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 75.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ac…5b03backed Yes | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 76c | 74.23$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 27c | 74.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked No | 67c | 73.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 33c | 70.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815c…2851backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 51cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 17c | 69.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 68.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…6255backed Yes | 26c | 68.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 30c | 67.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d68…a858backed Yes | 15c | 67.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 32c | 66.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda59…51c5backed Yes | 31c | 65.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…3578backed Yes | 29c | 60.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 28c | 57.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 75c | 56.7$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x481f…92f0backed Yes | 35c | 56.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c1…c0d1backed No | 72c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…1a1abacked No | 72c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 73c | 54.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc053…4cccbacked Yes | 28c | 54.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…b5cbbacked Yes | 38c | 53.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c9…7210backed No | 72c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd1…372abacked Yes | 28c | 49.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 69c | 49.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 30c | 49.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 21c | 49.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 51°F or below on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or higher on March 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.