Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Halys (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d259e6e52606a7b8e2f656dac298849e2179d882d58b0fed889d628d4ac9200
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Halysof Bublik, Halys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb57e…ffe8backed Halys | 58c | 1,730$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.32 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…104cbacked Bublik | 45c | 1,545$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 302 | 51.3%155 W · 147 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Bublik | 41c | 980.52$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.58 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Halys | 54c | 790.22$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.5 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Halys | 54c | 459.6$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.6 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…bfddbacked Halys | 59c | 441.46$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181 | 603 | 42%253 W · 350 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Bublik | 41c | 326.95$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.05 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…e5b2backed Halys | 57c | 250$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 401 | 44.4%178 W · 223 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Halys | 60c | 223.61$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.92 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…939ebacked Bublik | 47c | 214.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Halys | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…d03bbacked Bublik | 41c | 182.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Bublik | 41c | 131.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Bublik | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 265 | 55.8%148 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…0b14backed Halys | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa212…9161backed Halys | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Halys | 53c | 78.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Bublik | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 271 | 51.3%139 W · 132 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Bublik | 43c | 57.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3145…fcf5backed Halys | 57c | 36.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6968…447bbacked Bublik | 42c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0e…accebacked Halys | 58c | 19.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Halys | 59c | 16.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 587 | 50.4%296 W · 291 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Halys (+1.5)this page
- Alexander Bublik vs. Quentin Halys: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Bublik vs HalysBublik won
- Set 2 Winner: Bublik vs HalysHalys won
- Set Handicap: Halys (-1.5) vs Bublik (+1.5)Bublik won
- Swiss Open: Alexander Bublik vs Quentin HalysQuentin Halys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.