Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d282874f872a9819f609153e136b17d8b2b98e740c369113e4b010cebb7c295
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Virtus.pro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3532…3711backed Virtus.pro | 27c | 4,450$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.02 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora | 68c | 3,076$2,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.43 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Virtus.pro | 21c | 2,354$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.25 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Aurora | 74c | 1,377$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.89 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Virtus.pro | 55c | 999$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.45 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Aurora | 75c | 664.87$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.87 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Virtus.pro | 33c | 445$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.85 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Virtus.pro | 32c | 274$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Virtus.pro | 46c | 220$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Virtus.pro | 46c | 215.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Aurora | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Virtus.pro | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked Virtus.pro | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6438…255bbacked Virtus.pro | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22fc…edf7backed Virtus.pro | 28c | 38.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Aurora | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Aurora | 41c | 25.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…47a4backed Aurora | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group StageAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5)Aurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.