Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Nantes vs. Paris FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d2d73856283ff7e177282f56c51868d2e41a502aa5407879608b6ef95a7d49e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 22c | 30,199$6,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,595.88 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 27,216$21,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,027.01 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 62c | 2,514$1,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.19 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 80c | 2,500$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 25c | 1,500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 69c | 1,252$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.78 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Over | 21c | 1,036$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 26c | 601$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.05 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…e4dabacked Over | 23c | 534$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.82 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…3128backed Over | 44c | 369.12$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.41 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 74c | 356.67$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.21 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Under | 60c | 234.28$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.93 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 25c | 196$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 170 | 43.5%74 W · 96 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 38c | 176.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 77c | 165.76$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…958dbacked Over | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 78c | 136.13$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…5665backed Under | 56c | 131.64$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +166.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 41c | 130.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Under | 68c | 104.15$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 50c | 95.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Under | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Under | 56c | 82.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 26c | 51.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 59c | 51.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 62c | 51.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59cf…71dabacked Under | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9371…3aecbacked Under | 75c | 43.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed1b…4045backed Under | 58c | 39.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 56c | 38.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Under | 65c | 38.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +98%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef4b…f8babacked Under | 69c | 31.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Over | 34c | 30.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…180bbacked Under | 68c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Under | 74c | 28.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 73c | 21.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 57 | 78.9%45 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…2663backed Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 65c | 19.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked Under | 61c | 18.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed Under | 67c | 17.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29bc…d1cbbacked Under | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Nantes vs. Paris FC: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Nantes vs. Paris FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Nantes vs. Paris FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Nantes vs. Paris FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Nantes vs. Paris FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Paris FC (-1.5)FC Nantes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.