Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Nantes vs. Paris FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe44d19a144c69d1b0fd25f882e8c9ec17b94d137110ef20338112870f0255053
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 46c | 9,740$4,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,212.82 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 54c | 5,683$3,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,064.49 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 46c | 2,500$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.73 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 55c | 2,022$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.84 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 46c | 2,015$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.1 | 170 | 43.5%74 W · 96 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 1,653$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.33 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 54c | 1,410$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.54 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 53c | 1,006$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.66 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…5e8bbacked Under | 55c | 910$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 46c | 869.57$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.57 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 713.39$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.1 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…c93fbacked Over | 46c | 679.86$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.12 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 46c | 623.54$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.48 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Over | 47c | 545.2$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.2 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -52%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 65c | 461.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.54 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 44c | 384.5$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.32 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 68c | 306$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Over | 48c | 256.59$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.43 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…9e01backed Under | 46c | 223.75$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 53c | 150$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e5…2244backed Over | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 133.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…07c7backed Under | 55c | 129.09$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Over | 46c | 110$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 48c | 103.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 66c | 103.16$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Under | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 59c | 86.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 44c | 86.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +7.5wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 45c | 67.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 67c | 61.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 48c | 51.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…7d4cbacked Under | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed Over | 45c | 47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 50c | 40.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Under | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Over | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked Under | 53c | 26.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a9…8000backed Under | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 52c | 23.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Over | 47c | 21.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Nantes vs. Paris FC: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Nantes vs. Paris FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Nantes vs. Paris FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Nantes vs. Paris FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Nantes vs. Paris FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Paris FC (-1.5)FC Nantes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.