Asian League · resolved market
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Draw at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d399e75b37ac7692ddbf57b561d4b77830920fc8b1e591b6d493cbc5d8c17c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 64c | 6,732$4,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,316.38 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 35c | 1,568$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.71 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 37c | 1,433$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.25 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 1,008$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.52 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Yes | 37c | 506.58$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 36c | 389.43$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.76 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 39c | 306$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 35c | 286.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.69 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1653…384bbacked Yes | 31c | 278.36$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 35c | 228$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.3 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 35c | 210$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.85 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 38c | 208.61$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.3 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed Yes | 34c | 188$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.45 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb66…c8dfbacked Yes | 33c | 184.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d9…58f5backed Yes | 39c | 173.49$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…19e0backed Yes | 33c | 146.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 62c | 122$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aba…8adabacked Yes | 37c | 106.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb96…bdf0backed No | 62c | 87.26$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e2…4c57backed No | 62c | 84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…9257backed Yes | 39c | 78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 37c | 65.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 49c | 53.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b99…3035backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 63c | 17.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 225 | 44%99 W · 126 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Draw at halftime?this page
- Beijing Guoan FC leading at halftime?No won
- Qingdao Xihaian FC leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.