Australian A League · resolved market
Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2025-12-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d6c1d23c4b8281571924c96f0c170f61ed9234edc2c285c3029e44a6ababd59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 37c | 15,000$5,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,550 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc16b…8404backed No | 63c | 14,955$9,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,533.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 37c | 4,577$1,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,683.59 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 63c | 2,997$1,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.72 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 64c | 1,364$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.1 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 64c | 818.05$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.06 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 64c | 548.82$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.12 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked No | 63c | 477$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Yes | 36c | 333.33$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…28febacked Yes | 40c | 260$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d56…d1b1backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 64c | 185.85$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Yes | 33c | 178$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Yes | 34c | 158$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 33c | 130.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 32c | 121.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Yes | 34c | 120.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1f…a9a2backed Yes | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 63c | 86.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6974backed Yes | 35c | 85.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked No | 67c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 65c | 74.85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed No | 64c | 69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…8248backed No | 68c | 67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc271…1bfdbacked Yes | 32c | 57.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 38c | 52.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e5…2303backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…48d8backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…148bbacked No | 69c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed No | 68c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 50cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Yes | 32c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed No | 66c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…c226backed No | 66c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…f083backed No | 68c | 36.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Yes | 32c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…e3c9backed No | 66c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 35c | 31.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…adc2backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 61c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed No | 69c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked No | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…0da6backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 71cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…d746backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…6746backed No | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed No | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c1…090dbacked No | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 69c | 19.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…f2d1backed No | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2025-12-13?this page
- Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2025-12-13?Yes won
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.