MLB · resolved market
CHC Cubs vs. ARI Diamondbacks March 27
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3da9baf0a122c3a62e8aad10a564db48a381ee8293db68568c3c23c9f28b17c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cubsof Cubs, Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Cubs | 46c | 953.93$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.03 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Diamondbacks | 57c | 931$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.73 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Diamondbacks | 54c | 302.08$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.08 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d10…dca1backed Diamondbacks | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cubs | 42c | 94.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Diamondbacks | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Diamondbacks | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Diamondbacks | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Cubs | 54c | 48.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Diamondbacks | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a37…8c36backed Diamondbacks | 56c | 18.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CHC Cubs vs. ARI Diamondbacks March 27this page
- ATL Braves vs. SD Padres March 27Padres won
- BAL Orioles vs. TOR Blue Jays March 27Orioles won
- BOS Red Sox vs. TEX Rangers March 27Red Sox won
- CLE Guardians vs. KC Royals March 27Guardians won
- DET Tigers vs. LAD Dodgers March 27Dodgers won
- MIL Brewers vs. NYY Yankees March 27Yankees won
- MIN Twins vs. STL Cardinals March 27Cardinals won
- OAK Athletics vs. SEA Mariners March 27Mariners won
- PHI Phillies vs. WSH Nationals March 27Phillies won
- PIT Pirates vs. MIA Marlins March 27Marlins won
- SF Giants vs. CIN Reds March 27Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.