MLB · resolved market
PHI Phillies vs. WSH Nationals March 27
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf48480339c86991b7e4e57ce161296fa1cbdd56d073828ab7e9ea5ebe044daec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philliesof Phillies, Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Nationals | 21c | 1,400$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.95 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Nationals | 40c | 1,162$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.28 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…5b6dbacked Phillies | 55c | 1,005$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.91 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Nationals | 44c | 106.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Nationals | 28c | 95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…be98backed Phillies | 69c | 72.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Nationals | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Phillies | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Nationals | 37c | 39.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Nationals | 47c | 35.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3072…86b6backed Phillies | 53c | 22.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PHI Phillies vs. WSH Nationals March 27this page
- ATL Braves vs. SD Padres March 27Padres won
- BAL Orioles vs. TOR Blue Jays March 27Orioles won
- BOS Red Sox vs. TEX Rangers March 27Red Sox won
- CHC Cubs vs. ARI Diamondbacks March 27Cubs won
- CLE Guardians vs. KC Royals March 27Guardians won
- DET Tigers vs. LAD Dodgers March 27Dodgers won
- MIL Brewers vs. NYY Yankees March 27Yankees won
- MIN Twins vs. STL Cardinals March 27Cardinals won
- OAK Athletics vs. SEA Mariners March 27Mariners won
- PIT Pirates vs. MIA Marlins March 27Marlins won
- SF Giants vs. CIN Reds March 27Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.