Asian League · resolved market
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dbe2d8f171b1a323473209cc82433dcf9e16661e2a6bd92965331159b465077
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 6c | 1,596$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.72 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 26c | 703.21$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.79 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 22c | 643.92$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.28 | 279 | 64.9%181 W · 98 L | +28.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 37c | 628.7$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.62 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x140e…cf85backed Under | 63c | 476.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.19 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 40c | 205.63$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 144 | 29.2%42 W · 102 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b1…d4d4backed Under | 70c | 162.39$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Under | 75c | 160$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 334 | 52.7%176 W · 158 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Over | 39c | 138.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -9.6wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x121b…9d70backed Over | 38c | 133$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f4…2df9backed Under | 75c | 132.17$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 65c | 83.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 39c | 75.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 197 | 51.8%102 W · 95 L | +15.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb809…2004backed Under | 61c | 75.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4e…c662backed Under | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x95b4…7c3fbacked Over | 27c | 59.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 36c | 58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 405 | 50.6%205 W · 200 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed Over | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 63c | 35.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Under | 63c | 23.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 3.5this page
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 0.5Over won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 1.5Under won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 2.5Under won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 4.5Under won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)Kawasaki Frontale won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)Kawasaki Frontale won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.