Asian League · resolved market
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x450cfa073cdd6ba8d8ab74193f617858d9de2bb930449e4e87d7e5d0b80e4825
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 33c | 297.66$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.35 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Under | 27c | 259.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.26 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 249.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.92 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 50c | 201$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x943b…e35ebacked Under | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…3c59backed Over | 62c | 159.68$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Over | 66c | 150.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 92 | 69.6%64 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 40c | 124.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Over | 53c | 105.08$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -7.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -36%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 23c | 91.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 80c | 86$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 48c | 76.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 334 | 52.7%176 W · 158 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 39c | 74.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 52c | 73.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 276 | 39.5%109 W · 167 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +49.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…729cbacked Over | 80c | 49.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…4b12backed Under | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27c9…ee41backed Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2333…88f8backed Over | 53c | 40.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7797…668bbacked Under | 55c | 37.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…24aebacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Over | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…e900backed Over | 61c | 26.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa636…dfe9backed Over | 65c | 25.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf348…e543backed Under | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…e138backed Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -8.5wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1812…c143backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 1.5this page
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 0.5Over won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 2.5Under won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 3.5Under won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 4.5Under won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)Kawasaki Frontale won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)Kawasaki Frontale won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.