Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ddd3f733ba9d6fbd051b707ae457a3717070a423c27d1a0e17131f626960faf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8171…66a5backed No | 1c | 3,096$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda18…4282backed No | 2c | 3,074$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 956.28$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 45c | 530.22$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.21 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 24c | 515.88$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.81 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 497.7$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 30c | 395.24$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.75 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 384.29$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 322.77$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.45 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 50c | 282.16$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.64 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 273.66$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.33 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 45c | 246.65$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.75 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 43c | 144.35$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.96 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 135.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.83 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 78c | 109$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 69c | 105.59$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 69c | 102.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 36c | 102.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 21c | 96.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 28c | 85.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 84.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 37c | 84.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…20e0backed No | 71c | 77.13$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 65c | 77.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 32c | 73.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 72.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 66.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 72c | 63.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 30c | 60.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 80c | 59.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 76c | 59.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b2…2c4abacked Yes | 48c | 59.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 79c | 57.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 79c | 57.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 79c | 57.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…fa82backed No | 54c | 57.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 70c | 52.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…6459backed No | 36c | 52.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 80c | 48.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 51c | 48.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 39c | 47.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9eb…3d11backed No | 74c | 45.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 70c | 44.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 29c | 44.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 77c | 44.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x100e…1f81backed Yes | 61c | 43.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 31c | 41.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 25c | 40.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed No | 64c | 40.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 47c | 39.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 33c | 36.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…2dfcbacked Yes | 32c | 35.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 31.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 78c | 30.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…bc88backed Yes | 48c | 30.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 72c | 26.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 56c | 25.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf543…7cb4backed No | 74c | 23.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfca1…c1bebacked Yes | 46c | 23.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 54c | 22.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 69c | 21.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 69c | 21.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5889…1927backed Yes | 68c | 21.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 68c | 20.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 60c | 20.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 68c | 19.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…f707backed Yes | 64c | 19.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…422ebacked No | 74c | 17.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x678e…7deebacked No | 64c | 17.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 72c | 16.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3663…d13ebacked No | 66c | 16.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd839…26ddbacked No | 72c | 15.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 55°F or below on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.