Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40becbf83fa257e64d227e20f5bcb3ac4580cf50a41b2e72dc01241f4c30137a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed Yes | 8c | 1,094$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.52 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 648.98$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.19 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 37c | 602.61$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 594.46$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 30c | 461.02$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.72 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 359.17$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 8c | 354.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 57c | 350.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.86 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 40c | 333.38$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.39 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 323.95$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 60c | 316.66$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.89 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 36c | 256.29$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.64 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 189.56$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 61c | 180.1$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.38 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 163.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 31c | 142.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 120.15$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 105.95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 101.39$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 75c | 99.84$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 76c | 94.14$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 41c | 93.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 38c | 87.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 61c | 85.03$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 82.7$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 81.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed Yes | 37c | 79.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 61c | 77.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 37c | 75.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a0…e1b8backed Yes | 40c | 73.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 32c | 72.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed Yes | 33c | 70.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 68.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…bc88backed Yes | 38c | 68.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 34c | 65.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 67c | 64.66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 64.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 68c | 62.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 42c | 58.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 73c | 56.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 42c | 55.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 33c | 53.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3663…d13ebacked Yes | 34c | 50.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 55c | 50.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 31c | 49.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed Yes | 33c | 47.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed No | 56c | 47.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 77c | 45.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 35c | 44.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 56c | 43.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 63c | 42.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 74c | 42.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 64c | 41.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 34c | 41.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 55c | 41.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 69c | 36.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 36.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 62c | 34.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 62c | 34.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 69c | 33.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 38c | 33.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 53c | 33.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 69c | 33.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a13…69f2backed Yes | 33c | 32.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 59c | 30.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 29.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 36c | 29.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 59c | 29.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 72c | 29.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c84…88f3backed No | 61c | 29.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 65c | 28.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…66a5backed No | 64c | 28.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 69c | 26.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf8…2094backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 44c | 23.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 63c | 22.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 22.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…ef70backed No | 64c | 22.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…7f15backed No | 62c | 22.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 62c | 21.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 70c | 20.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…61debacked No | 77c | 20.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…2cbdbacked No | 61c | 19.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 66c | 17.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 16.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 78c | 16.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf2…442bbacked No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 79c | 16.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 79c | 16.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 79c | 15.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…341cbacked No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 55°F or below on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.