South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-01-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dff1770c8e285702f4d3dc2dd430475bb18a9fffedfc4f9fb38b757b676ea27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 32c | 49,224$15,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,226.89 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +14.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 67c | 13,071$8,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,754.68 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 27c | 6,806$1,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,969.44 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 6,482$1,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,716.31 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Yes | 20c | 3,095$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,476.21 | 313 | 49.8%156 W · 157 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.97 | 138 | 21%29 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 28c | 825.68$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.49 | 123 | 31.7%39 W · 84 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 18c | 685$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.52 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 28c | 590.91$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.98 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…4ac6backed No | 67c | 504.9$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 66c | 500.44$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.78 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 22c | 492.11$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.83 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Yes | 27c | 462.41$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.38 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 31c | 459$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.71 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 69c | 458.91$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.05 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed No | 57c | 357.49$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 31c | 347.3$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.45 | 250 | 21.6%54 W · 196 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 67c | 341.91$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.48 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 30c | 331.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.93 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 29c | 175.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.46 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd6…686fbacked No | 71c | 146.47$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Yes | 25c | 106.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…196fbacked No | 71c | 96.45$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 67cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Yes | 35c | 92.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc1…b159backed Yes | 38c | 77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d0…ee5abacked Yes | 29c | 46.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +150.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed No | 70c | 32.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 67c | 29.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed No | 67c | 29.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8e…96d0backed No | 76c | 25.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 54c | 24.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 274 | 42%115 W · 159 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 67c | 20.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-01-22?this page
- Will Instituto AC Córdoba vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield end in a draw?No won
- Will Instituto AC Córdoba win on 2026-01-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.