Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e5db92b6c027a7de9a5dd3a1d24613fe265c0f9930343e74c7cb21a0b94e616
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 2c | 2,700$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 650.15$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.83 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 6c | 637.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 23c | 284.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.47 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 200.95$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 168.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 152.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 136.46$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 129.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 126.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 124.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 110.8$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 73c | 109.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 105.1$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 69.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 32c | 57.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 26c | 48.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Yes | 24c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 75c | 40.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 35.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 66c | 34.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…21cbbacked Yes | 32c | 30.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 79c | 25.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 79c | 25.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 76c | 21.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 78c | 18.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 71c | 15.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 80c | 13.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.