Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70100be328c54c6e9440dcd60d28ba715138bb0a0c05b605080861f607000844
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 11c | 1,243$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.16 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 15c | 961.54$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.45 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 7c | 621$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 3c | 591.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.65 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c95…8188backed Yes | 21c | 562.67$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.75 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +359.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 32c | 561.61$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.35 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 4c | 380$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 41c | 296.69$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.16 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa83c…a8f4backed No | 49c | 265.36$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.65 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 4c | 254.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…7c99backed Yes | 51c | 250.51$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.47 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 15c | 160.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 7c | 155.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 146.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd5…6b5cbacked No | 39c | 134.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…602dbacked Yes | 78c | 128.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 128.06$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed No | 10c | 117$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 45c | 114$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked Yes | 67c | 112.77$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 42c | 85.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 83.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 46c | 75.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 48c | 73.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…c6cebacked No | 35c | 71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…b9d1backed No | 63c | 63.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 47c | 62.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked No | 55c | 54.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 60c | 54.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 77c | 51.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 32c | 34.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked No | 59c | 33.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 30.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 57c | 22.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f9…c357backed No | 64c | 20.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 64cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.