College Football · resolved market
Houston vs. Oklahoma State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e5de8d0d99447b3da478be5d595ebfd2264c85a42d02da4732d0ba65865e739
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houstonof Houston, Oklahoma State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Oklahoma State | 17c | 22,349$3,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,728.38 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Oklahoma State | 15c | 10,436$1,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560.98 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce6f…e87cbacked Oklahoma State | 21c | 5,628$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Oklahoma State | 16c | 4,477$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.24 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Oklahoma State | 17c | 3,646$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.82 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd40…73a2backed Oklahoma State | 16c | 3,125$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 112 | 21.4%24 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Oklahoma State | 17c | 2,946$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Oklahoma State | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Oklahoma State | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Oklahoma State | 15c | 1,711$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.59 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd144…4159backed Oklahoma State | 15c | 1,535$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Oklahoma State | 16c | 1,098$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.68 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Oklahoma State | 4c | 1,087$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Oklahoma State | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Houston | 79c | 660.56$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.23 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…37a1backed Oklahoma State | 3c | 647.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…597ebacked Oklahoma State | 14c | 387.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Oklahoma State | 21c | 270$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Houston | 78c | 262.5$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Oklahoma State | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Oklahoma State | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Oklahoma State | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8c…672ebacked Oklahoma State | 16c | 182$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…c94dbacked Oklahoma State | 16c | 165.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Oklahoma State | 15c | 131.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Houston | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…f1b3backed Houston | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc28b…b8b2backed Oklahoma State | 24c | 124.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed Oklahoma State | 16c | 118.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddfe…c5a6backed Oklahoma State | 31c | 107.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Oklahoma State | 16c | 105$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 184 | 16.8%31 W · 153 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Oklahoma State | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a53…cc07backed Oklahoma State | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Oklahoma State | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Oklahoma State | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x221a…dbfbbacked Oklahoma State | 20c | 97.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…b41fbacked Oklahoma State | 17c | 76.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Houston | 71c | 27.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7869…61d8backed Houston | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston vs. Oklahoma Statethis page
- Houston vs. Oklahoma State: O/U 46.5Over won
- Houston vs. Oklahoma State: O/U 48.5Over won
- O/U 47.5Over won
- Spread: Houston (-14.5)Houston won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.