College Football · resolved market
Spread: Houston (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91d27f861693ffed2feb86f42ee369eae585ce0fcc21184d6e753ce838b0562c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houstonof Houston, Oklahoma State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $186,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $190,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Oklahoma State | 51c | 139,348$70,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70,692.71 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Houston | 49c | 99,250$48,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,617.5 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Houston | 50c | 31,565$15,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,807.69 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Houston | 49c | 18,433$9,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,400.79 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed Oklahoma State | 51c | 18,433$9,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,400.79 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Houston | 50c | 12,353$6,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,176.5 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Oklahoma State | 51c | 9,735$4,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,951.64 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Houston | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,940 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Oklahoma State | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Oklahoma State | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Houston | 48c | 1,995$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.35 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Houston | 49c | 1,832$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.44 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Oklahoma State | 49c | 1,400$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Houston | 48c | 1,179$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.08 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Houston | 50c | 1,127$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.5 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Houston | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Houston | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +14.8wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Oklahoma State | 52c | 769.23$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Houston | 50c | 700$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Houston | 51c | 700$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked Houston | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Houston | 50c | 360$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Oklahoma State | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ef…f8c1backed Houston | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…a454backed Houston | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Houston | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Oklahoma State | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Houston | 48c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2216…4accbacked Houston | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Houston | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Oklahoma State | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston (-14.5)this page
- Houston vs. Oklahoma StateHouston won
- Houston vs. Oklahoma State: O/U 46.5Over won
- Houston vs. Oklahoma State: O/U 48.5Over won
- O/U 47.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.