Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Central Arkansas Bears vs. Stetson Hatters
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e65ed7b5917cc6a67ff68a96bc771363c0595d193ad5cf3c9f5cf1d47fe37b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Central Arkansas Bearsof Central Arkansas Bears, Stetson Hatters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Stetson Hatters | 19c | 3,111$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.09 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Stetson Hatters | 19c | 2,222$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.18 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Central Arkansas Bears | 77c | 970$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.77 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5c…a5debacked Stetson Hatters | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.47 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Stetson Hatters | 21c | 433.25$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.05 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Central Arkansas Bears | 78c | 427$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.22 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Stetson Hatters | 21c | 319.73$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.71 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Stetson Hatters | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Stetson Hatters | 21c | 240$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Stetson Hatters | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Stetson Hatters | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Stetson Hatters | 25c | 187.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 815 | 28.8%235 W · 580 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Stetson Hatters | 15c | 85.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Stetson Hatters | 19c | 80.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Stetson Hatters | 22c | 76.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 990 | 45.6%451 W · 539 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbe…993abacked Stetson Hatters | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…4dd4backed Central Arkansas Bears | 72c | 68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1989…2370backed Stetson Hatters | 28c | 68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed Stetson Hatters | 21c | 52.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 127 | 48.8%62 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eac…3dc7backed Stetson Hatters | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 79c | 44.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Stetson Hatters | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 78c | 31.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 870 | 47.2%411 W · 459 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Central Arkansas Bears | 75c | 29.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 379 | 47.8%181 W · 198 L | -26.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…1966backed Central Arkansas Bears | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4336…28a7backed Central Arkansas Bears | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…743dbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Central Arkansas Bears | 80c | 16.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 176 | 27.8%49 W · 127 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.