Northern Colorado Bears vs. Montana Grizzlies

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e7408717eb214a96584b3b3433c8f5606b1fa904b9ff27506ae3cc3eb131861

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Montana Grizzliesof Northern Colorado Bears, Montana Grizzlies
Resolved: Jan 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $9,049
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $10,137

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,049 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe60a…6a47backed Northern Colorado Bears	55c	2,457$1,346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,346.46	2,579	47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L	-42.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Montana Grizzlies	71c	1,856$1,322 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$533.38	3,905	58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L	+165.3wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Northern Colorado Bears	22c	802.59$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.56	1,173	25.2%296 W · 877 L	-43.0wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Montana Grizzlies	45c	646.78$293 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$353.67	12,422	49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L	+118.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Northern Colorado Bears	51c	500$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	1,231	47%578 W · 653 L	-17.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Montana Grizzlies	49c	500$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255	2,687	48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24d8…e8a8backed Montana Grizzlies	57c	419.5$238 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$181.34	123	54.5%67 W · 56 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Northern Colorado Bears	47c	273.97$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.41	2,124	50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L	+40.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x004e…90f8backed Northern Colorado Bears	40c	195$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	192	37%71 W · 121 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Montana Grizzlies	46c	159$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.86	1,487	43%639 W · 848 L	+50.8wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Northern Colorado Bears	30c	140$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.1	3,684	42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L	+32.6wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Northern Colorado Bears	12c	130.11$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.07	2,555	41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L	-15.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Northern Colorado Bears	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,667	36.4%607 W · 1,060 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Northern Colorado Bears	23c	123.45$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.07	4,848	52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L	+139.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x708d…8a09backed Northern Colorado Bears	19c	106.84$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Northern Colorado Bears	20c	101.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	235	44.7%105 W · 130 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6dca…a7acbacked Montana Grizzlies	77c	100$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	252	54.8%138 W · 114 L	-15.7wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Montana Grizzlies	78c	95$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.04	614	46.1%283 W · 331 L	-8.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Montana Grizzlies	78c	89.36$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.5	383	43.6%167 W · 216 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Montana Grizzlies	46c	78$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.12	3,380	49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L	+30.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf79a…56c2backed Montana Grizzlies	46c	49.23$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.58	222	50.9%113 W · 109 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Montana Grizzlies	46c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.2	1,070	46.9%502 W · 568 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Montana Grizzlies	46c	27$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.58	490	43.1%211 W · 279 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Northern Colorado Bears	54c	24.5$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.23	2,048	32.7%670 W · 1,378 L	-16.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Montana Grizzlies	75c	15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.75	1,951	45.1%880 W · 1,071 L	-19.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Northern Colorado Bears vs. Montana Grizzlies

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market