Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Paide Linnameeskond vs. SK Rapid Wien end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e7d9d38573b8d4f4145604b78f8d9c0f199f178a8a91585a0bbad4385098cdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 46c | 5,550$2,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,573.68 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 52c | 3,254$1,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,553.43 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 15c | 2,250$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.55 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 76c | 2,057$1,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.62 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 32c | 1,260$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.43 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 1,259$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.81 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 127 | 70.9%90 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed No | 79c | 912$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.62 | 116 | 74.1%86 W · 30 L | +18.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…bbbabacked No | 59c | 678$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.98 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +19.0wins | +0.28per pick | 46cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…a3b6backed No | 59c | 678$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.98 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 21c | 630.49$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.09 | 192 | 50.5%97 W · 95 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…2aeabacked No | 63c | 380.96$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.96 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed Yes | 13c | 198.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3689…2967backed Yes | 31c | 187.03$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9287…0098backed Yes | 7c | 144$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 13c | 124.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 655 | 35.6%233 W · 422 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 28c | 103.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8953…9b78backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 13c | 85.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 13c | 78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 270 | 39.3%106 W · 164 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 59c | 75.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ac…7ad0backed No | 65c | 65.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 34c | 52.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Yes | 30c | 39.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 42c | 32.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 43c | 26.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 44c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked No | 74c | 24.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e9…41f3backed Yes | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paide Linnameeskond vs. SK Rapid Wien end in a draw?this page
- Will Paide Linnameeskond win on 2026-08-06?No won
- Will SK Rapid Wien win on 2026-08-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.