Tennis · resolved market
Merida Open Akron: Varvara Lepchenko vs Shuai Zhang
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e9138e31f5e0c99bf8fc94de455204f32c77ddea7d0ff250c44a26a721c8e69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zhangof Lepchenko, Zhang
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Zhang | 79c | 4,230$3,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.04 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Lepchenko | 22c | 2,315$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.04 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Lepchenko | 26c | 1,214$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.31 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Lepchenko | 20c | 1,174$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.58 | 265 | 35.5%94 W · 171 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Lepchenko | 7c | 1,100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Lepchenko | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Zhang | 63c | 950.91$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.91 | 1,186 | 62.8%745 W · 441 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Zhang | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 420 | 46.9%197 W · 223 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Lepchenko | 23c | 493.52$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.23 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Zhang | 79c | 479.94$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.91 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Zhang | 65c | 377.13$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.12 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Lepchenko | 21c | 334.69$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Lepchenko | 18c | 278$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Lepchenko | 37c | 272.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Lepchenko | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 593 | 48.9%290 W · 303 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Zhang | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Zhang | 76c | 157$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Lepchenko | 20c | 127.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Zhang | 80c | 126.91$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Lepchenko | 21c | 126$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Lepchenko | 32c | 114.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Lepchenko | 21c | 107$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 381 | 33.9%129 W · 252 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Lepchenko | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Zhang | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a5…f64abacked Lepchenko | 21c | 90.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 849 | 63.1%536 W · 313 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Lepchenko | 19c | 82.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Zhang | 76c | 79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Zhang | 67c | 78.36$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Zhang | 72c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Lepchenko | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 275 | 46.5%128 W · 147 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Zhang | 78c | 30.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Zhang | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Zhang | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 990 | 56%554 W · 436 L | +32.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf791…8ef9backed Zhang | 80c | 15.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…21a1backed Zhang | 80c | 15.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 127 | 65.4%83 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Zhang | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2644…2432backed Zhang | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.