Ligue 1 · resolved market
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ec998b32821e89cb7141af4971ad13235edb53194e913c2c65869bff1662768
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 44c | 14,000$6,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,160 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 13,240$7,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,931.44 | 1,933 | 45.3%876 W · 1,057 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Over | 60c | 1,107$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.2 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 44c | 888$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.28 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +10.6wins | +0.29per pick | 47cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 43c | 875.9$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.82 | 123 | 39.8%49 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Under | 43c | 599.96$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.98 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 29c | 546.63$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.1 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 58c | 484$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.72 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 61c | 245.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 233 | 60.5%141 W · 92 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…53a7backed Under | 39c | 108$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa95…447cbacked Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc225…4e1ebacked Under | 52c | 82.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 54c | 66.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +12.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Over | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Over | 39c | 49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed Over | 57c | 36.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…cd69backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 53c | 28.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 84 | 60.7%51 W · 33 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5this page
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spread: Lille OSC (-0.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.