Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will HNK Rijeka win on 2025-11-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ef115ffa45703f0054d3e1988973f7fd644b8bbbc3e94039d704a7e1acd86ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 50c | 25,000$12,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,500 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 50c | 15,240$7,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,620.22 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…9168backed No | 52c | 12,927$6,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,178.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 46c | 5,094$2,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,319.82 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 49c | 4,100$2,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 58c | 3,636$2,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.74 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 37c | 3,140$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.23 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 65c | 2,359$1,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.03 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked No | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0801…35cbbacked Yes | 29c | 1,743$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 55c | 1,430$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.75 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed No | 51c | 1,137$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.25 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 46c | 1,019$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.33 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 50c | 575.33$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.35 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ea…f888backed Yes | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…f2f2backed Yes | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 47c | 304.85$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.47 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 51c | 304.49$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.63 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4b…84c9backed Yes | 50c | 271.5$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Yes | 33c | 250$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3623…b50dbacked Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 66c | 157.41$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Yes | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…2704backed No | 60c | 110$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 48c | 102.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…7b61backed No | 52c | 91.17$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63aa…c5c8backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed Yes | 51c | 45.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 52c | 41.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…7934backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…a40fbacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 37c | 32.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HNK Rijeka win on 2025-11-27?this page
- Will AEK Lárnakas win on 2025-11-27?No won
- Will HNK Rijeka vs. AEK Lárnakas end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.