Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3efaaf07f38e2d2f58494a220c06ff7b2467855b8053afaf3331be0bae0111c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xavier Musketeersof St. John's Red Storm, Xavier Musketeers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Xavier Musketeers | 48c | 7,145$3,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,723.52 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked St. John's Red Storm | 52c | 4,805$2,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,515.75 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed St. John's Red Storm | 57c | 524.46$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked St. John's Red Storm | 51c | 499$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.49 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked St. John's Red Storm | 51c | 490$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. John's Red Storm | 52c | 484.58$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.09 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed St. John's Red Storm | 53c | 444.68$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.68 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Xavier Musketeers | 43c | 400$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf331…ca0bbacked St. John's Red Storm | 59c | 170.59$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…8823backed Xavier Musketeers | 49c | 140.94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.94 | 144 | 47.2%68 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x096a…0074backed Xavier Musketeers | 45c | 100.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed St. John's Red Storm | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Xavier Musketeers | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 505 | 46.9%237 W · 268 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed St. John's Red Storm | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed St. John's Red Storm | 51c | 79.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed St. John's Red Storm | 53c | 76.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Xavier Musketeers | 43c | 45.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Xavier Musketeers | 43c | 37.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed St. John's Red Storm | 55c | 37.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…7276backed St. John's Red Storm | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4a…4fb5backed St. John's Red Storm | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked St. John's Red Storm | 49c | 21.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -91%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked St. John's Red Storm | 58c | 20.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed St. John's Red Storm | 55c | 20.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-14.5)this page
- Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-15.5)Xavier Musketeers won
- Xavier Musketeers vs. St. John's Red StormSt. John's Red Storm won
- Xavier Musketeers vs. St. John's Red Storm: O/U 159.5Over won
- Xavier Musketeers vs. St. John's Red Storm: O/U 160.5Over won
- Xavier Musketeers vs. St. John's Red Storm: O/U 162.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.