Movies · resolved market
Will "Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 23m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f0a275f2f5308d8ee27ae02f1791a0442c61eb144e4dbfee9a89477fbd0832c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x497b…aba5backed No | 4c | 14,316$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.2 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed No | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…11edbacked No | 1c | 6,934$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 70c | 6,369$4,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,928.39 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 35c | 4,772$1,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,691.82 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 1c | 4,100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked No | 23c | 3,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 78c | 1,808$1,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.87 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,296$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 20c | 419.77$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.31 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 4c | 336.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd453…75ebbacked No | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…e242backed No | 23c | 247.53$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5752…b077backed No | 70c | 143.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked No | 28c | 125$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 20c | 91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked No | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Yes | 62c | 57.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc072…5d02backed Yes | 79c | 13.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 23m?this page
- Will "Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 29m?No won
- Will "Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 29m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.