Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Darline Graham Nordone win Lexington County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f1dc6b57ac3fda5b95d25c8db01ba5335e46dfe2f6be50dfff04710fab0e4ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 70c | 1,990$1,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.33 | 255 | 36.5%93 W · 162 L | +19.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 28c | 1,198$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.53 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 23c | 1,100$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.23 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 9c | 799.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 66c | 551.04$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.43 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 5c | 443.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 34c | 430$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.2 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 14c | 395.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -93%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 17c | 350$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 127 | 43.3%55 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 6c | 316.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 5c | 283.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 354 | 34.7%123 W · 231 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked No | 17c | 222$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1924…dff3backed No | 10c | 192.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 14c | 142.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 20c | 115.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed No | 18c | 111.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 13c | 87.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 36c | 85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 142 | 52.8%75 W · 67 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8873…852abacked No | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf866…00d3backed No | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0755…4b83backed No | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…735fbacked No | 55c | 48.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 32c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be2…202bbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Darline Graham Nordone win Lexington County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?this page
- Will Ralph Norman win Lexington County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.